Source: thejudge13.com (2026)
Key Findings at a Glance
- → 70% likelihood Red Bull is expected to keep Max Verstappen paired with Isack Hadjar for 2027, with a 30% chance Verstappen departs and Arvid Lindblad gets promoted instead. [autoracing1.com]
- → 85% likelihood Ferrari is tipped to retain Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton for 2027, since Hamilton’s deal covers at least three seasons and Leclerc is tied to the team until 2029. [autoracing1.com]
- → 300 mm The FIA has moved the leading edge of the floor’s ‘tea tray’ back by 300 mm for 2027, a change designer Adrian Newey says will let cars run lower at the front and change airflow to the floor. [gpblog.com]
- → 28 of 30 votes Rule changes for the 2027 season need a supermajority of 28 out of 30 votes from the F1 Commission, made up of the FIA, Formula 1 Management, and the ten team principals. [thejudge13.com]
- → half a second per lap Ferrari’s exhaust winglet system, later closed off for 2027, was estimated to be worth about half a second per lap on certain circuits by redirecting exhaust gas to boost rear downforce. [thejudge13.com]
- → 768 kg The minimum car weight for the 2027 season stays at 768 kg, a drop of 30 kg from the pre-2026 rules, part of the wider push toward lighter, smaller cars. [aboveandbeyond.group]
- → 18-3 points At Haas, Oliver Bearman has outscored teammate Esteban Ocon 18-3 in points, alongside a 6-2 qualifying edge and a 5-0 race-result edge, putting Ocon’s seat at risk for 2027. [autoracing1.com]
F1 teams must plan the 2027 season around a new 58/42 power split favoring the internal combustion engine over hybrid power, a shift from the 50/50 balance used in 2026, with a further move to 60/40 set for 2028, according to thejudge13.com. That single number changes engine design, car weight targets, and even how teams approach driver contracts for next season. This guide breaks down the driver lineups, technical rules, and voting process teams must work through before the 2027 grid takes shape.
1Which F1 Teams Are Set for 2027 — And Which Seats Are in Doubt?
McLaren is the most stable lineup for 2027, with an 80% likelihood of keeping Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Ferrari follows at 85% for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes sits at 75% for George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, and Red Bull is rated 70% to keep Max Verstappen alongside Isack Hadjar.
| METRIC | VALUE | SOURCE |
|---|---|---|
| Red Bull 2027 lineup likelihood (Verstappen & Hadjar) | 70 % | autoracing1.com |
| McLaren 2027 lineup likelihood (Norris & Piastri) | 80 % | autoracing1.com |
| Ferrari 2027 lineup likelihood (Leclerc & Hamilton) | 85 % | autoracing1.com |
| Mercedes 2027 lineup likelihood (Russell & Antonelli) | 75 % | autoracing1.com |
| Aston Martin 2027 lineup likelihood (Alonso & Stroll) | 55 % | autoracing1.com |
| Alpine 2027 lineup likelihood (Gasly & Colapinto) | 70 % | autoracing1.com |
| Williams 2027 lineup likelihood (Sainz & Albon) | 50 % | autoracing1.com |
| Haas 2027 lineup likelihood (Bearman & Tsunoda/Fornaroli) | 55 % | autoracing1.com |
| Bearman vs Ocon qualifying record | 6-2 sessions | autoracing1.com |
| Source: autoracing1.com | ||
Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll pairing carries just a 55% likelihood, tied with Haas at 55% for Oliver Bearman alongside either Yuki Tsunoda or Leonardo Fornaroli. Williams sits lowest among the group at 50% for Carlos Sainz and Alexander Albon, while Alpine rates 70% for Pierre Gasly and Franco Colapinto. Bearman’s 6-2 qualifying edge over Esteban Ocon this season feeds directly into that Haas uncertainty, a pattern covered in more depth in our breakdown of 2027 seat changes and the full grid prediction analysis.
2What Is the New 58/42 Engine Split for 2027?
For 2027, F1 mandates a 58/42 split favoring the internal combustion engine over hybrid power, up from the 50/50 balance used in 2026. A further shift to 60/40 is planned for 2028, so engine builders need designs that work across both ratios without a full rebuild between seasons.
| METRIC | VALUE | SOURCE |
|---|---|---|
| ICE/hybrid power split, 2026 | 50/50 ratio | thejudge13.com |
| ICE/hybrid power split, 2027 | 58/42 ratio | thejudge13.com |
| ICE/hybrid power split, 2028 | 60/40 ratio | thejudge13.com |
| Source: thejudge13.com | ||
The shift toward combustion power places more weight on traditional engine departments at Ferrari, Mercedes, and Red Bull Powertrains, reversing years of hybrid-heavy development priorities. Similar technical changes have played out in other series, as detailed in our look at recent engine innovation trends and the rally technical rule changes for 2026.
3How Many Votes Does It Take to Change F1’s 2027 Rules?
Any rule change for the 2027 season needs a supermajority of 28 out of 30 votes from the F1 Commission, made up of the FIA, Formula 1 Management, and all ten team principals. Changes for the following season must be approved by June 30, giving teams a hard deadline to reach agreement.
| METRIC | VALUE | SOURCE |
|---|---|---|
| Supermajority vote threshold for rule changes | 28 of 30 votes | thejudge13.com |
| Rule change approval deadline for following season | June 30 date | thejudge13.com |
| Source: thejudge13.com | ||
That 28-vote threshold gives each of the ten team principals real influence over the final 2027 package, since a single team can block a change if enough others join it. The June 30 deadline forces technical directors to lock in floor, weight, and power-unit decisions well before the season starts, a governance structure explored further in our piece on motorsport management roles. Teams deciding whether to back or block a proposal often draw on the same data functions covered in motorsport data analysis careers.
4What Aerodynamic Changes Are Coming to F1 Cars in 2027?
The FIA has pushed the floor’s leading edge, called the ‘tea tray,’ back by 300 mm for 2027, letting cars run lower at the front. Floor-inlet vortex generators drop from 5 to 3 elements. These changes arrive after 11 races run under the current regulations as of August 2026.
| METRIC | VALUE | SOURCE |
|---|---|---|
| Tea tray leading edge shift for 2027 | 300 mm | gpblog.com |
| Floor-inlet vortex generators for 2027 | 3 (down from 5) elements | gpblog.com |
| Races completed under new regulations (as of August 2026) | 11 races | gpblog.com |
| Source: gpblog.com | ||
Designer Adrian Newey says the 300 mm shift changes how air reaches the floor and allows a lower front ride height, forcing every aerodynamics department to rework underbody concepts rather than adapt existing 2026 parts. Reducing the floor-inlet vortex generators from 5 to 3 elements simplifies a part of the car that teams spent much of the 11 races since the current rules began fine-tuning. Similar underbody and airflow rethinks have influenced sports car design too, as shown in endurance racing innovation coverage and historical WEC performance data.
5What Are the Official F1 Car Specifications for 2027?
The 2027 minimum car weight stays at 768 kg, 30 kg lighter than pre-2026 rules. Maximum wheelbase is 3,400 mm, maximum width 1,900 mm, and front tyres measure 280 mm wide. Cars carry 30% less downforce and 55% less drag than pre-2026 machinery, with a 22-driver, 11-team, 24-round season planned.
| METRIC | VALUE | SOURCE |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum car weight, 2027 | 768 kg | aboveandbeyond.group |
| Max wheelbase, 2027 | 3,400 mm | aboveandbeyond.group |
| Max car width, 2027 | 1,900 mm | aboveandbeyond.group |
| Front tyre width, 2027 | 280 mm | aboveandbeyond.group |
| Downforce and drag change vs pre-2026 cars | -30% downforce / -55% drag percent | aboveandbeyond.group |
| Manual Override (Overtake Mode) energy burst | 0.5 MJ (about 67 bhp) | aboveandbeyond.group |
| Roll hoop load requirement, 2026 onward | 20 (up from 16) G | aboveandbeyond.group |
| 2027 season scale | 22 drivers, 11 teams, about 24 rounds count | aboveandbeyond.group |
| Source: aboveandbeyond.group | ||
The Manual Override system adds a 0.5 MJ energy burst, worth about 67 bhp, giving drivers a tool similar in spirit to Overtake Mode systems tested elsewhere, while the roll hoop load requirement rises to 20 G from 16 G for added crash protection. A 24-round calendar across 11 teams and 22 drivers keeps the 2027 season roughly the same size as recent years, a scale worth comparing against the WEC’s own 2026 technical rules and the IndyCar 2026 race calendar.
Complete Data Reference
Sortable table of all verified data points. Click any column header to sort.
| Metric | Value | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull 2027 lineup likelihood (Verstappen & Hadjar) | 70 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| McLaren 2027 lineup likelihood (Norris & Piastri) | 80 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| Ferrari 2027 lineup likelihood (Leclerc & Hamilton) | 85 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| Mercedes 2027 lineup likelihood (Russell & Antonelli) | 75 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| Aston Martin 2027 lineup likelihood (Alonso & Stroll) | 55 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| Alpine 2027 lineup likelihood (Gasly & Colapinto) | 70 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| Williams 2027 lineup likelihood (Sainz & Albon) | 50 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| Haas 2027 lineup likelihood (Bearman & Tsunoda/Fornaroli) | 55 % | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| Bearman vs Ocon qualifying record | 6-2 sessions | autoracing1.com | 2026 |
| ICE/hybrid power split, 2026 | 50/50 ratio | thejudge13.com | 2026 |
| ICE/hybrid power split, 2027 | 58/42 ratio | thejudge13.com | 2026 |
| ICE/hybrid power split, 2028 | 60/40 ratio | thejudge13.com | 2026 |
| Supermajority vote threshold for rule changes | 28 of 30 votes | thejudge13.com | 2026 |
| Rule change approval deadline for following season | June 30 date | thejudge13.com | 2026 |
| Tea tray leading edge shift for 2027 | 300 mm | gpblog.com | 2026 |
| Floor-inlet vortex generators for 2027 | 3 (down from 5) elements | gpblog.com | 2026 |
| Races completed under new regulations (as of August 2026) | 11 races | gpblog.com | 2026 |
| Minimum car weight, 2027 | 768 kg | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
| Max wheelbase, 2027 | 3,400 mm | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
| Max car width, 2027 | 1,900 mm | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
| Front tyre width, 2027 | 280 mm | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
| Downforce and drag change vs pre-2026 cars | -30% downforce / -55% drag percent | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
| Manual Override (Overtake Mode) energy burst | 0.5 MJ (about 67 bhp) | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
| Roll hoop load requirement, 2026 onward | 20 (up from 16) G | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
| 2027 season scale | 22 drivers, 11 teams, about 24 rounds count | aboveandbeyond.group | 2026 |
Methodology
Driver lineup percentages are analyst estimates based on contract status and current form, not official team confirmations, so pairings could shift before 2027 announcements. Technical rule details such as the 58/42 engine split and floor changes are set through the F1 Commission’s 28-of-30 vote process and remain open to late amendment. All figures reflect reporting available as of 2026-08-16 and may change once teams file final 2027 entries.
- Sources consulted: 10
- Sources cited: 4
- Data range: 2026-07-15 to 2026-08-11
- Freshness: 4 current-year, 0 last-year, 0 older
- Update schedule: Quarterly
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 58/42 split coming for F1 engines in 2027?
For 2027, F1 teams must plan around a new 58/42 power split that favors the combustion engine over hybrid power, replacing the 50/50 split used in 2026. A further move to 60/40 is planned for 2028, so teams need engine designs that work across both ratios without a full rebuild. [thejudge13.com]
Will Max Verstappen still drive for Red Bull in 2027?
Reports give a 70% likelihood that Red Bull keeps Max Verstappen paired with Isack Hadjar for 2027. The remaining 30% scenario has Verstappen leaving the team, opening a seat that junior driver Arvid Lindblad would likely fill instead. [autoracing1.com]
Will Ferrari keep Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton for 2027?
Yes, most likely. Ferrari is tipped at an 85% chance of keeping both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton for 2027, since Hamilton’s contract runs at least three seasons and Leclerc is under deal until 2029. A smaller 15% scenario has Oliver Bearman replacing Leclerc instead. [autoracing1.com]
What aerodynamic changes are teams facing for the 2027 F1 cars?
The FIA has pushed the floor’s leading edge, known as the ‘tea tray,’ back by 300 mm for 2027. Designer Adrian Newey says this lets cars sit lower at the front and reshapes airflow reaching the floor, forcing teams to rethink underbody design from scratch rather than carry over 2026 concepts. [gpblog.com]
How many votes are needed to change F1 rules for 2027?
Any rule change for the 2027 season needs a supermajority of 28 out of 30 votes from the F1 Commission. That body includes the FIA, Formula 1 Management, and all ten team principals, so teams have real say over how final the 2027 package turns out to be. [thejudge13.com]
What is the minimum car weight for the 2027 F1 season?
The minimum car weight for 2027 stays at 768 kg, a 30 kg drop from the pre-2026 rules. This weight limit is part of a wider plan for lighter, smaller cars, and it shapes how much material teams can add for cooling, structure, or added downforce devices. [aboveandbeyond.group]
Is Esteban Ocon’s Haas seat at risk for 2027?
It looks that way. Teammate Oliver Bearman has outscored Ocon 18-3 in points this season, backed by a 6-2 edge in qualifying and a 5-0 edge in race results. Haas has reportedly also tested reserve driver Leonardo Fornaroli, suggesting Ocon’s spot is far from guaranteed for 2027. [autoracing1.com]
Which F1 teams have the most stable driver lineups for 2027?
McLaren looks the steadiest, with an 80% likelihood of keeping Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, both reportedly locked in long-term. Ferrari follows at 85% for Leclerc and Hamilton, while Mercedes sits at 75% for George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, a pairing tied to a season with seven wins so far. [autoracing1.com]
Sources & References
- thejudge13.com. “A Return to Rake Design? F1 Cars: How the 2027 F1 Regulations Will Reshape the Grid.” https://thejudge13.com/2026/08/11/a-return-to-rake-design-f1-cars-how-the-2027-f1-regulations-will-reshape-the-grid/. Accessed 2026-08-16.
- autoracing1.com. “Formula 1 Rumors: Our Early Predictions for 2027 Silly Season.” https://www.autoracing1.com/pl/493972/formula-1-rumors-our-early-predictions-for-2027-silly-season/. Accessed 2026-08-16.
- gpblog.com. “FIA Changes 2027 F1 Rules as Teams Face Major Aerodynamic Rethink.” https://www.gpblog.com/en/tech/fia-changes-2027-f1-rules-as-teams-face-major-aerodynamic-rethink. Accessed 2026-08-16.
- aboveandbeyond.group. “2027 F1 Season Guide.” https://aboveandbeyond.group/2027-f1-season-guide/. Accessed 2026-08-16.
Last updated: August 16, 2026
